A Sensible Decision

An update on this story:

Prosecutors have dropped the "weapons of mass destruction" charge in the case of the South Carolina teenager who allegedly planned to bomb his school.

The teenager who allegedly planned to destroy his high school with explosives will not face a WMD charge at his anticipated trial, the Associated Press reported yesterday.

Ryan Schallenberger, 18, had been charged with attempting to use a weapon of mass destruction in connection with his suspected plot against Chesterfield High School. Federal prosecutors dropped the charge without explanation in May.

The WMD charge never made sense. He had enough ammonium nitrate to take out a classroom or two, but that's a far cry from a weapon of mass destruction.

Calling something "WMD" when it's not only confuses and dilutes the meaning of the term.

For What It's Worth

One time I recall hearing someone quip that to understand what's meant by the word "expert," you just have to analyze its two syllables. When you do this, you realize that an "ex" is a has-been and a "spurt" is a drip under pressure.

So then.

A group of homeland security experts have spoken:

Book Hill Partners and the Homeland Defense Journal released the results of a survey of 122 homeland security experts on priorities for the next administration in protecting the American people and homeland.

Key findings of the survey include:

• Over 83 percent of experts surveyed expected a major disaster of some kind in the United States within the next four years, within the term of the next president.
• Roughly 58 percent of respondents said that the most probable scenario for a major disaster was a natural disaster. More surprisingly almost 22 percent of experts said that the most probable scenario for a major disaster was a terrorist attack with a weapon of mass destruction (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear specifically).
• Almost 72 percent of respondents expect major changes if Sen. Obama is the next president. In contrast, over 80 percent of respondents believed that homeland security policies under a McCain administration would be largely unchanged from those under the Bush administration.
• The next administration's top four homeland security priorities should be border security, emergency response, development of medical counter-measures to weapons of mass destruction, and port security.

Prognostication is always a nice safe business. Even if you're wrong, it was just an educated guess anyway. But I am curious as to how anyone could predict a "major natural disaster" within a given timeframe. You can lay odds on it, sure, but to expect that one will happen? Hmm...

Terrorists and the Energy Infrastructure: What's the Risk?

In a brief paper published under the auspices of the Naval Postgraduate School, Dr. Michael Mihalka and Dr. David Anderson analyze the risk of catastrophic terrorism targeting the energy infrastructure. They argue that the risk is relatively slight when compared to other threats:

The threat from and effect of transnational terrorism [to the energy sector] is much less than many pundits have argued. In essence, the transnational terrorism poses a challenge well within the parameters of natural events and the ability of the current security system to handle.

Well, we must remember that the prime threat to the security of supply in the short-term perspective is not terrorism, or even politics. It's Mother Nature.

It's certainly true that a terrorist group would really have to "go big" to replicate the kind of disruption to the energy sector that Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused.

Energy is one sector in which the ability to respond and recover can be a real deterrent. A primary goal of any direct attack on energy infrastructure would be economic. But if the economic damage is mitigated by resiliency in the sector, then there's less rationale for the attack.

Cool Tool For Tracking Disease Outbreaks

Healthmap

(h/t Effect Measure)

How Do They Do It? ... Volume! Volume! Volume!

State, local, and tribal governments will soon be able to leverage the federal government's buying power to purchase homeland-security related items:

The U.S. General Services Administration received new authority to help state and local governments in purchasing homeland security equipment and services under the Local Preparedness Acquisitions Act (HB 3179) signed by President Bush last week. The new law authorizes the GSA Administrator to allow state, local, and tribal governments to buy homeland security goods and services through the cooperative purchasing program. Officials will be able to use GSA's Schedule 84 to buy items such as alarm systems, facility management systems, firefighting and rescue equipment, law enforcement and security equipment, and marine craft.

Federal Acquisition Service Commissioner Jim Williams said, "GSA's ability to leverage the federal government's enormous buying power enables us to provide goods and services at best value and pass the savings on to our client agencies. Now we can pass these discounts on to state and local governments ...

Using your organization's buying power to get discounts is, of course, a no-brainer.

At the same time, state, local and tribal governments have to maintain strategic discipline and avoid slipping into the tempting but faulty line of thinking that homeland security means the opportunity to buy more stuff (!)

Material purchases should always support the state and local homeland security strategy. If they don't, the money is probably better spent elsewhere, even if the new stuff looks great and provides local politicians with some really nice publicity shots.

Sensible Medicine

The Florida legislature recently passed a law that makes sense. It will allow people to refill prescriptions in an emergency, even if their insurer says they're not yet due for a refill:

Recently, the Legislature passed the Emergency Prescription Refill bill (Florida Statute 252.358 and 462.0275). This law requires all insurers and managed-care organizations to suspend refill-too-soon restrictions when a patient seeks a refill in a county that:

• Is currently under a hurricane warning issued by the National Weather Service
• Is declared to be under a state of emergency in an executive order issued by the governor
• Has activated its emergency operations center and its emergency management plan

This law also allows patients outside of these areas to get an emergency 72-hour refill if the pharmacist is unable to readily obtain refill authorization from the doctor.

In certain cases, simply telling people to "be prepared" is not enough. Sometimes you've got to remove obstacles for them. This law is a good example of that.

FEMA: The Iceman Will No Longer Cometh

Catching up on this one:

FEMA Administrator R. David Paulison said in April his agency will only distribute ice for medical emergencies or life-threatening situations following a disaster. Since its inception, FEMA has provided ice to disaster victims, especially in areas where power outages occur.

“We’re not in the ice business anymore,” Paulison said, and that it is not a “life-saving commodity” for most people. “It takes a tremendous amount of resources, and it really doesn't accomplish much, other than making people feel good because they have a bag of ice," Paulison added. “Ice is more of a comfort thing.”

“My response is that during July, August and September in South Mississippi, ice is not necessarily used to cool water to drink,” said Don McKinnon, director of the Jones County Emergency Operations Center (EOC). “During emergencies, it is used for medical purposes to keep specific medications cool, to help keep food good in refrigerators until power can be restored, and for cooling people off. It is a necessity here."

With the current situation (FEMA out of the ice business), McKinnon said the “state is trying to take up the slack. They (state emergency agencies) have limited resources, and can’t do it quite as effectively as FEMA did. Our pockets aren’t that deep. Locally, we hope we keep water pressure and generators to try to provide ice. Large chicken plants produce large amounts of ice and they have been kind enough to share it with the citizens of Jones County. After Katrina, they provided several thousands of pounds of ice.

“Who will distribute the ice?,” McKinnon asked. “We don’t have the manpower or resources to do that, or don’t have funds to buy ice and give to people. It’s a big void in our plan right now; we don’t know what we’re going to do. If we’re able to get any ice at all, it will probably be from the state if local providers are down. We will definitely focus on medical needs, and the elderly and young to keep them cool to prevent heat stroke and deaths."

This needs to get worked out. Your bottled water may not need ice, but your food and medicine do. The big question: How does FEMA define a "medical emergency" or "life-threatening siutation"?

Here's what's puzzling to me: It's fine if FEMA doesn't deliver the ice themselves - they have already vowed to get out of the logistics and transportation business, leaving that work to contractors. But with their buying power and their network of suppliers, they ought to be able to facilitate the supply of necessary ice during an emergency.

This also seems to show a disconnect between state and local homeland security and DHS/FEMA. Did FEMA get local input before making this decision?

Priorities?

Forgive me, it's Friday and I couldn't resist posting this:

Delivery boys across America, beware: Zach Phillips was arrested by Homeland Security Thursday afternoon in Kansas City—for delivering a pizza. Phillips parked his car in front of the KCMO Federal Courthouse to deliver lunch to a few judges and on his way out, he was approached by several Homeland Security officers. When questioned, Phillips forked over his I.D. to the inquisitive officers. According to Phillips, the officers then shoved him up against their S.U.V., cuffed him, and escorted him down the block to the county jail. His crime? An outstanding warrant for a minor, non-moving traffic violation. "They were real rough with me, throwing me up against their car," Phillips told CMJ.

"[Kansas City police officers] couldn't believe [Homeland Security] arrested me," Phillips said. "[KCPD] actually apologized to me. They were like 'We like you! Don't spit in our pizza!'" Phillips had a hard time believing it himself. "I was like, shouldn't you be looking for Osama Bin Laden?" said Phillips.

Hmm ... sounds like there are a couple of disconnects here: One between DHS and KCPD, and the other between DHS and its priorities.

A Useful Terrorist Profile

There still isn't one.

A new joint security alert from the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI warns that terrorists are increasingly turning to women and teenagers to carry out suicide bombings.

The bulletin, obtained by CBS News, says “Female suicide bombers conducted more than twice as many attacks in Iraq in the first six months of 2008 than in all of 2007”.

US intelligence analysts also say Islamic radicals are enlisting greater numbers of teenagers for their deadliest missions.

It's not who they are; it's what they do.

DHS Targets Chemical Facilities

DHS has set its sights on U.S. businesses that manufacture, process, and store large amounts of chemicals, pointing out that such operations could be targets for terrorists (not to mention accidents):

The federal government will tell 7,000 businesses next week that they are considered high risk-terrorist targets because they house large amounts of chemicals.

The sites — which range from major chemical plants to universities, food processing centers and hospitals — will need to complete a vulnerability assessment so the government can decide how to regulate their security measures in the future.

U.S. intelligence officials say terrorist organizations, including al-Qaida, favor chemical attack methods because of the severe consequences they can inflict.

"This is never going to be an impregnable target set, but I want to introduce enough complexity into the mix that al-Qaida's going to go somewhere else," said Bob Stephan, assistant secretary of infrastructure protection at the Homeland Security Department.

As the department considers these 7,000 sites, it also will look at physical security; cyber security; insider threat potential; how hazardous a chemical release could be to the nearby communities; how dangerous the chemicals are if they are mixed with water; and whether the chemicals could be easily stolen from the sites and used to kill.

Sounds like purely protective intervention - harden the most potentially dangerous sites, thereby force the potential adversary to seek a softer target.

I like the move, because I've never been convinced that chemical facilities have been secured in proportion to the potential threat. The same goes for chemicals in transport via train and truck.

At the same time, it's important to contextualize this sort of action. No one should heave a sigh of relief, thinking that the possibility of a terrorist attack involving chemicals has just become vanishingly small. It remains necessary to fight terrorism at the source by complicating the efforts of potential terrorists to recruit, train, raise funds, organize into operational cells, and plan attacks. That sort of activity will do more to prevent a terrorist attack - via any attack mode - than any protection regime.

One point of fact in correction of the above: Historically, terrorist organizations have not favored chemical attacks. The overwhelming choice of attack is with conventional explosives. For a while in early 2007, al Qaeda in Iraq experimented with combining conventional explosives and chemicals (usually chlorine but also nitric acid in at least one instance), but that attack mode didn't seem to be much more deadly than the conventional explosives alone.

Disaster Preparedness: Status Update

Shameless linking:

HSToday does a good job summarizing a number of recent reviews of the federal disaster preparedness system.

Shameless quoting of a few key points:

DHS “needs to better integrate stakeholders in its revision of key policy documents, particularly the National Response Framework,” stated William O. Jenkins, Jr., director of GAO homeland security and justice issues.

[In] the National Pandemic Strategy and Implementation Plan, [GAO] found that there are numerous shared leadership roles and responsibilities, leaving uncertainty about how the federal government would lead preparations for and response to a pandemic.

[G]iven what a good many authorities – including federal preparedness insiders – have told HSToday.us about preparedness problems throughout the federal government (see HSToday.us’s reporting on emergency medical care, pandemic planning, and FEMA disaster preparedness), the ability of the federal government to adequately respond to a major and catastrophic disaster or crisis clearly is in doubt - despite the fact that the government's readiness today is clearly far, far better than it was just a few years ago.

"There is a real concern among the state homeland security directors around the country that there are people in the federal government who want to put the interests of the accountants ahead of the interests of our citizens. That would be a grave mistake," the subcommittee was told by Alabama Department of Homeland Security Director, James M. Walker, Jr.

It's not all bad news, though it may seem so from the excerpts above. DHS is moving forward slowly, slowly...

Defining Resilience Isn't Enough; It Must Also Be Facilitated

Rich Cooper at Security Debrief points out that the flooding in the Midwest provides a good example of resilience:

If you are looking for real-life resiliency happening today, pay close attention to what is happening right now in the heartland of America. Over the past several days, the citizens of Cedar Falls, Iowa, have filled hundreds of thousands of sandbags to save their City from the rising waters of the Cedar River. Thousands of volunteers of every age and walk of life have stepped forward to fill bag after bag and put them in place to save their ‘homeland’ and preserve the ‘security’ that it brings to them.

Cedar Falls and others like her in the Midwest that are fighting the ‘battle’ for survival represent the personification of resilience. They are offering us all a teachable moment and we all have a lot to learn.

There was no legislative mandate that made the citizens of Cedar Falls step forward to fill sandbags and stack them atop one another. Nor were there FEMA checks handed out to make them come downtown to save the City streets from more ruin. They just showed up and did it. They were business owners, employees, parents, students, etc. – all citizens committed to the survival of what is important to them. That is what resilience is: action that enables survival. Before we allow the word to become so overused that it loses its meaning (e.g. interoperability), we need to remember that people focused on a mission are at the center of resilience.

True enough, but it leaves out a crucial point: It's not enough to rely on the willingness of citizens to step forward, pitch in, and try to save their own communities. Citizens have always done so, and will continue to do so. And this sort of activity has always been more organized and effective in localized disasters such as the Midwest flooding than in widespread, catastrophic disasters.

The key to resilience, especially for catastrophic disasters, is to create systems that facilitate those efforts - by citizens, by businesses, by public agencies - so that they are as effective as possible. I'm talking about communications systems, logistical systems, healthcare systems, etc.

In a catastrophe, these systems will spontaneously organize themselves through whatever means are available, even if no planning is done. But it's the job of homeland security professionals to ensure that the planning is done, and that when the disaster happens, the systems that support citizen action are as robust as possible.

So while the activity of "people on a mission" is at the heart of resilience, it's only a necessary but not sufficient condition. The engine that makes resilience go is the creation of reliable systems that facilitate the actions of those responders.

Preventing Vandalism = Homeland Security?

Santa Rosa, California, will spend some of its Homeland Security money on surveillance cameras, in part to prevent vandalism:

Sonoma County transit agencies will buy surveillance cameras with the first installment of voter-approved state Homeland Security funds announced Wednesday.

The county and the city of Santa Rosa will get a combined $57,000 of the $21 million that went to 14 Bay Area bus, train and ferry operators.

Brian Albee, head of Sonoma County Transit, said the agency's $31,800 portion will be used to mount cameras at its West Robles Avenue bus yard. The project is expected to cost about $50,000, he said.

Mona Babauta, Santa Rosa's deputy director of transit, said the city will spend its $25,100 on cameras at some bus stops plagued with vandalism.

Unless they're integrated into a real-time information-reporting system, surveillance cameras are not tools for prevention. They'll help you identify perpetrators after the damage has been done.

The larger question is, is this really a homeland security issue? Just what are we protecting ourselves from? Vandalism may be a problem, but unless it's sabotage, it's not a security threat.

Lone Wolves = Good News?

The risk of Islamist "lone wolf" terrorism may be on the rise:

A newly declassified Canadian intelligence report is warning about the emerging threat posed by "lone wolf" Islamist terrorists who operate completely on their own.

Terrorists inspired by al-Qaeda have, in the past, tended to work in cells, but the report says they are beginning to use the solo strategy once associated with the militant far right.

Lone wolves such as Timothy McVeigh can do damage, of course. But they're not going to pull off an attack on the scale of 9/11 or the East Africa embassy bombings. So in a sense, this could be seen as good news. If they don't feel secure gathering together, that's a victory for our counterterrorism efforts.

But there's another view: The idea that this is all a great strategic distraction, to keep us chasing our tails:

Terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman said he believes the Canadian assessment is correct and that the shift is part of a larger strategy to distract and exhaust Western counterterrorism agencies.

"I think it's right but I think this is yet another example of the strategic sophistication of our adversaries in that by encouraging lone wolves, I think they're trying to suck the resources from our security and intelligence services and police departments," he said.

"In other words, if there's a homegrown threat, which is one thing, now there's a lone wolf threat. And I think they're both legitimate. I think part of al-Qaeda's strategy, the jihadi strategy, is to get everyone so consumed with these grassroots threats that it gives greater scope to the real professionals to operate."

Such a view is in harmony with what bin Laden himself said in 2004:

All that we have to do is to send two mujahidin to the furthest point east to raise a piece of cloth on which is written al-Qaida, in order to make the [American] generals race there to cause America to suffer human, economic, and political losses ...

So, what to do? Spend energy on the risk of lone wolves, or continue focusing on preventing the emergence of more organized operations? My vote is for the latter.

Lone wolf attacks, even in a series, would be localized and unlikely to have a lasting effect on the U.S. From a risk-management perspective, the better option may be to continue focusing on preventing the formation of operational cells that could inflict greater damage.

FEMA's Revised Logistics Operation

The Federal Times takes a look at FEMA's revised logistics operation:

“Katrina showed we did not have the capability in place to replenish what we had,” said Eric Smith, FEMA’s national logistics coordinator. “Our reliance was too much on what we had in stock.”

FEMA has developed several new approaches to disaster preparation. One is transparency: making visible to everyone concerned what FEMA has in stock — items such as blankets, generators and portable housing units.

Another is partnerships with first responders, such as the Red Cross, which is often first on the scene with first aid, food and temporary housing, and the Army Corps of Engineers, which is charged with providing ice, water and emergency power.

Also, FEMA has forged a closer link with the Defense Logistics Agency to help it provide fuel, food, water, cots, blankets, “anything in their inventory,” Smith said.

Tom Essig, chief procurement officer at the Homeland Security Department, FEMA’s parent agency, gives another example.

“After Katrina, FEMA bought ready-to-eat meals. We don’t do that now. Now we contract. When we need it, we provide it. We don’t buy and store any more. We buy the service, which includes the transportation. The companies themselves are responsible for the logistics of transportation,” Essig said.

This is more in line with FEMA's structure and purpose. FEMA is not supposed to be a massive agency that stockpiles emergency supplies and delivers them in the event of a disaster. FEMA is a relatively small agency that needs the authority (and often the political cover) to direct other, larger agencies to do what needs to be done.

As Katrina showed, situational awareness and communications are two more critical requirements for FEMA. The best logistics system in the world won't do you any good if you don't have information on what is needed where, or if those needs can't be communicated.

Cohabitate :: Collaborate

One way to get to know people is simply by being around them.

In Edison, New Jersey, they're putting that principle into practice by building a new "public safety center" which will house police, fire, EMS, and training facilities:

The facility, which Mayor Jun Choi expects to be open by early next year, will house police, fire and EMS personnel all under one roof. It is intended to be a state-of-the-art facility and will have a full training center for all the township's public safety personnel ... Choi said that coordination between different branches of public safety is essential in improving emergency response in town.

The importance of coordination between police, fire and EMS was a theme repeated multiple times ... something that people said would definitely be helped through the placement of personnel from all three services in the same building.

Col. Rick Fuentes, New Jersey State Police superintendent ... noted that fire and police could help each other, for example, in sharing information about the nature of certain buildings, noting that fighting fires at, say, a methamphetamine lab might be particularly dangerous and require contact with police.

Conversely, he noted that some firefighters report gang members stopping fire trucks from getting near burning buildings until incriminating evidence is cleared.

It's a step.

Cheap Preparedness Stuff

Good idea: In conjunction with Florida's Hurricane Preparedness Week, retailers have lowered the prices on items that can help citizens become better prepared:

Governor Charlie Crist today joined state and local emergency managers and the Florida Retail Federation to promote Florida Hurricane Preparedness Week, May 25-31, 2008. He announced that some Florida retailers will be hosting special sales on hurricane supplies, beginning Friday, May 30, and continuing through June 8.

Some of the items included on the emergency supply list include:

· Flashlights and portable, self-powered light sources
· Portable radios, two-way radios and NOAA weather-band radios
· Flexible waterproof sheeting (tarps)
· Gas or diesel fuel containers
· Batteries
· Medications
· Ice chests or other food storage coolers
· Portable generators
· Carbon monoxide detectors
· Storm shutter devices
· Pet carrier and supplies

That's nice public-private sector collaboration.

Lead, Follow, or ... Something

Evidence that 9/11 is receding into memory: an article in today's New York Times, describing state and local resistance to DHS' priorities for homeland security funding:

More openly than at any time since the Sept. 11 attacks, state and local authorities have begun to complain that the federal financing for domestic security is being too closely tied to combating potential terrorist threats, at a time when they say they have more urgent priorities.

Local officials do not dismiss the terrorist threat, but many are trying to retool counterterrorism programs so that they focus more directly on combating gun violence, narcotics trafficking and gangs — while arguing that these programs, too, should qualify for federal financing, on the theory that terrorists may engage in criminal activity as a precursor to an attack.

I've long argued that precursor crimes are a good way to target potential terrorist cells. But it depends how it's done. If it's a strategic effort that involves information-sharing in an active search for links to potential terrorism, that's good. But if it's simply an attempt to conflate ordinary crime-fighting with "potential terrorism" (because, well, you never know who might be a terrorist...), then that's not strategic. It would just be a matter of luck. Your effort to stop crime might uncover a terrorist because any type of police work could.

The Seattle chief of police, R. Gil Kerlikowske, said, “If the law enforcement focus at the local level is only on counterterrorism, you will be unable as a local entity to sustain it unless you are an all-crimes operation, and you may be missing some very significant issues that could be related to terrorism.”

Chief Kerlikowske is president of a group of police chiefs from major cities who said in a report last week that local governments were being forced to spend increasingly scarce resources because, they say, Homeland Security did not pay for all the costs. “Most local governments move law enforcement, counterterrorism and intelligence programs down on the priority list because their municipality has not yet been directly affected by an attack,” the report said.

What we're seeing here is two ends of a spectrum, neither of which is appropriate. On the one hand, it's ridiculous to imagine that local law enforcement should exclusively focus on combating terrorism.

And on the other hand, no jurisdiction should ignore the potential for terrorism or erroneously conflate all crime-fighting with counterterrorism. Like any low-probability, high-impact event (an earthquake, a tornado, etc), a potential terrorist attack should be prepared for and prevented and/or mitigated to the degree possible.

Information Sharing Through "Enlightened Bribery"

Alabama has created a geo-spatial tool, Virtual Alabama, that accumulates public data about homes, schools, businesses, and other locations within the state. Police, fire departments, health care providers and other users can use the tool for preparedness and response. (Also see this post from last July.)

Government Computer News offered an inside look at how the state's Department of Homeland Security went about getting the information to populate the database:

[P]rojects such as Virtual Alabama are always hungry for data, especially in their early stages. And one of the best ways to get data from other local agencies is a form of enlightened bribery, Walker said.

“We determined very quickly that the best imagery available in Alabama was in either state agencies or in county revenue departments because they fly and take a picture of your house to reassess it,” Walker said. “So we go to the revenue folks, and I say, ‘I’m the Homeland Security director, and I’d like your imagery.’ And they say, ‘I’m not giving you my imagery. I paid a million dollars for this imagery.’ They don’t want to give it to anybody because they assume that you have some sort of financial gain after they’ve spent this money. So how do we solve this problem?”

Walker’s strategy was to do an end around by going to county sheriffs. “The typical Alabama sheriff carries a pretty big stick in his county,” Walker said. “He can get just about anything he wants. So we bring the sheriffs together and say, ‘OK, sheriffs, if we had your county’s imagery, these are the kinds of things we [could] give you for free,’ ” he continued.

Walker offered to give the sheriffs free access to the data on one condition: “You’ve got to get me your county data.” So, Walker said, “the sheriff goes to the revenue commissioner and says, ‘I’ll tell you what: You’re going to get a ticket every day if you don’t give the Homeland Security director the imagery from our county.’ ”

Sounds like good old-fashioned leveraged negotiations to me.

Virtual Alabama is a real-world demonstration of the concept that, for information-sharing to be successful, two conditions must exist:

1. Parties must be willing to share the information.
2. The information must be presented in a usable format.

Virtual Alabama succeeds on both counts. But too often, even if the first hurdle is passed, the second one is not. We're hearing that out of fusion centers - that there's a lot of data being ostensibly shared, but it's not in a usable form, so it's difficult to use effectively.

Form follows function.

Terrorism and the Drug Trade

A good post from Douglas Farah, discussing the U.S. first drug conviction with a connection to fund-raising by a radical Islamist terrorist group - in this case, the Taliban. Key points:

As money from donations and charities becomes harder to acquire and move safely, the easy alternative is the drug trade.

I believe this is the future. Religious/ideological radicalism and organized criminal groups will become less and less distinguishable in the pipelines of illicit activities we see more and more.

This argument has been made many times before. Call this another data point.